Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Prediksi dan Analisis Tindak Pidana di Sumatera Utara

Ledy Meva Tiurma Gultom; Felicia Eldora; Khoiriyati Azmi; Rut Omega Purba; Karin Aulia Putri; Sudianto  Manullang; Alvi Sahrin  Nasution

doi:10.29303/griya.v5i3.641

Ledy Meva Tiurma Gultom Universitas Negeri Medan
Felicia Eldora Universitas Negeri Medan
Khoiriyati Azmi Universitas Negeri Medan
Rut Omega Purba Universitas Negeri Medan
Karin Aulia Putri Universitas Negeri Medan
Sudianto Manullang Universitas Negeri Medan
Alvi Sahrin Nasution Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29303/griya.v5i3.641

Keywords: Criminal acts, Monte Carlo, prediction, stochastic simulation, North Sumatra

Abstract

Crime data in North Sumatra Province obtained from the Central Statistics Agency shows an upward trend, peaking in 2023. This condition presents an urgent need for swift and appropriate policy intervention. The effectiveness of such policies is measured by their ability to significantly reduce crime rates. This study aims to forecast the trend of criminal acts in North Sumatra for the period 2024–2028 using the Monte Carlo Simulation method, based on historical data from 2000 to 2023. The stochastic simulation approach was chosen to accommodate the uncertainty and variability inherent in crime data. The results provide probabilistic predictions that can serve as a reference for the government in designing more adaptive and responsive crime prevention policies. This model is expected to offer realistic estimates of potential increases or decreases in crime, thereby enabling more targeted and data-driven decisions. Overall, the findings of this study contribute to the development of strategic, risk-based security policies that reflect the dynamic nature of criminal activity.

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