Pemodelan Spasio-Temporal HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C di Jawa Tengah Menggunakan Model Bayesian Multivariat
Abstract
HIV/AIDS serta Hepatitis B dan C merupakan penyakit menular yang hingga saat ini masih menjadi permasalahan serius dalam kesehatan masyarakat, mengingat tingginya beban morbiditas dan mortalitas serta kesamaan jalur penularannya. Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, jumlah kasus kedua penyakit ini tergolong signifikan dengan pola sebaran yang tidak merata antar kabupaten/kota, sehingga memerlukan pendekatan analisis yang mampu menangkap variasi spasial dan temporal secara simultan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pola risiko HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C menggunakan Bayesian Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Model dengan pendekatan Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Data yang digunakan bersumber dari BPJS Kesehatan periode 2019–2023 yang mencakup 35 kabupaten/kota di Jawa Tengah. Hasil evaluasi model menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi prior spasial pCAR, prior temporal RW1, serta interaksi spasio-temporal Type I memberikan kinerja terbaik, ditunjukkan oleh nilai DIC sebesar 4007,37, WAIC sebesar 3925,16, dan Log Score sebesar 11113,66. Analisis korelasi mengindikasikan adanya hubungan spasial positif yang cukup kuat antara HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C, yang menunjukkan kecenderungan wilayah berisiko tinggi pada satu penyakit juga berisiko tinggi pada penyakit lainnya. Sebaliknya, korelasi temporal teridentifikasi lemah dan tidak konsisten, mencerminkan perbedaan dinamika waktu kedua penyakit. Pemetaan risiko relatif mengungkap klaster wilayah berisiko tinggi yang berulang pada beberapa kabupaten/kota tertentu. Temuan ini menegaskan efektivitas pendekatan Bayesian multivariat sebagai dasar perumusan kebijakan intervensi kesehatan berbasis wilayah.
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