Pemodelan Jumlah Kasus Tuberkulosis dengan Pendekatan Regresi Non-linear di Sumatera Utara

Laura Annisa Purba; Hanafi Irsyad Pulunga; Putri Leony Simpa; Vincencia Cahyani Pandiangan; Hanna Dewi Mariana Hutabarat

doi:10.29303/griya.v5i4.895

Laura Annisa Purba Universitas Negeri Medan
Hanafi Irsyad Pulunga Universitas Negeri Medan
Putri Leony Simpa Universitas Negeri Medan
Vincencia Cahyani Pandiangan Universitas Negeri Medan
Hanna Dewi Mariana Hutabarat Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29303/griya.v5i4.895

Keywords: Tuberculosis (TBC), Non-linear regression, Negative binomial, Overdispersion, Primary healthcare services

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the major infectious diseases requiring serious attention in regional health policy planning. This study aims to model the number of TB cases in North Sumatra Province using a non-linear regression approach with a Negative Binomial distribution to address overdispersed count data. Secondary data from 33 districts/cities in 2023 were analyzed, with the number of TB cases as the dependent variable and the number of poor population, GDP per capita, number of public health centers, and open unemployment rate as independent variables. The results indicate that the model is statistically significant overall; however, at the individual level, only the open unemployment rate shows a positive effect that approaches statistical significance. These findings highlight the complexity of TB determinants and suggest the need for cross-sectoral strategies focusing on employment expansion and the strengthening of primary health care services.

References

Desy, R. J., Asriwati, & Fitriani, A. D. (2024). Analisis Penatalaksanaan Program Penanggulangan Tuberkulosis Paru dengan Strategi DOTS. Journal of Telenursing (JOTING), 6(2). DOI: 10.31539/joting.v6i2.12087

Gurusinga, R. (n.d.). Penyuluhan Kesehatan Untuk Meningkatkan Pengetahuan Tentang Penularan Penyakit Tb Paru di Puskesmas Bandar Khalipah. JURNAL PENGMAS KESTRA (JPK).

Hosmer Jr., D. W., Lemeshow, S., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons. [DOI: 10.1002/9781118548387]

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2020). Rencana aksi nasional penanggulangan tuberkulosis 2020–2024. Kementerian Kesehatan RI. https://repository.kemkes.go.id/book/567

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2023). Profil kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2022. Kementerian Kesehatan RI. https://www.kemkes.go.id/downloads/resources/download/pusdatin/profil-kesehatan-indonesia/Profil-Kesehatan-Indonesia-Tahun-2022.pdf

Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2022). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia Tahun 2022. Pusdatin Kemenkes RI.

Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (n.d.). Buku Pedoman Tuberkulosis. [https://repository.kemkes.go.id/book/567]

Lubis, I., Fadillah, I., Adelia, N., Ramadani, R., Mawarni, D., Adinda, P., & Nasution, A. D. (2025). Evaluasi Layanan dan Strategi Pengendalian Tuberkulosis (TBC) Di Puskesmas Padang Bulan: Tantangan dan Harapan. JUKEJ: Jurnal Kesehatan Jompa, 4(1).

Lukman, A. F., Albalawi, O., Arashi, M., Allohibi, J., Alharbi, A. A., & Farghali, R. A. (2024). Robust Negative Binomial Regression via the Kibria-Lukman Strategy: Methodology and Application. Mathematics, 12(18), 2929. [DOI: 10.3390/math12182929]

Luthfiah, M., & Gurning, F. P. (2024). Implementasi Program Penanggulangan Tuberkulosis Paru Dengan Strategi Directly Observed Treatment Shortcourse di Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Rengas Pulau Tahun 2023. JCRD: Journal of Citizen Research and Development, 1(2).

McCullagh, P., & Nelder, J. A. (1989). Generalized Linear Models (2nd ed.). Chapman and Hall. https://books.google.com/books?id=9FJYQgAACAAJ

Ulya, F. (2023). Analisis Program Penanggulangan TBC di Indonesia dalam Upaya Pencapaian Target Eliminasi TBC Tahun 2030.

Pralambang, S. D., & Setiawan, S. (2021). Faktor Risiko Kejadian Tuberkulosis di Indonesia. Jurnal Biostatistik, Kependudukan, dan Informatika Kesehatan, 2(1). [DOI: 10.7454/bikfokes.v2i1.1023]

Pratiwi, T., Hadisaputro, S., & Suhartono, S. (2024). Pengaruh Lingkungan Fisik dan Host Terhadap Kejadian Tuberkulosis Paru di Puskesmas Sentosa Baru Medan. Jurnal Kesehatan Lingkungan Indonesia, 23(3). [DOI: 10.14710/jkli.23.3.273-278]

Saifudin, T., Firmansyah, M., Victory, J. T., & Aisharezka, M. (2024). Pemodelan Kasus Tuberkulosis di Indonesia dengan Metode GWPR Guna Mendukung SDGs 2030. Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications, 21(3). [DOI: 10.12962/limits.v2113.17041]

Supit, O. E., Manoppo, J. I. C., & Manoppo, J. E. (2024). Analisis Hubungan Faktor Motivasi, Beban Kerja, dan Lingkungan Kerja dengan Kepuasan Kerja Pegawai Di Rumah Sakit Gigi dan Mulut Universitas Sam Ratulangi. Journal of Management and Bussines (JOMB), 8(3).

World Health Organization. (2024). Global tuberculosis report 2024. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240101531

World Health Organization. (2024). Global Tuberculosis Report 2024. [ISBN: 9789240101531]